The spread of COVID-19 in stock returns along global value chains

This paper examines the performance of industries in the trade network in international stock markets during the onset of COVID-19. In general, the value of all industries in G20 countries declines significantly in the pandemic. Stock returns of industries in the central positions of global value chains exhibit remarkable resilience despite the economic hardship caused by COVID-19. This pattern is more pronounced when the disruptions caused by social distancing requirements are considered. We postulate that this is related to the essential services provided by the central industries.

Zero-COVID policy and stock market sectoral performance in China

With the outbreak of COVID-19, the Chinese government implemented the "zero-COVID” policy as a measure to curb the spread of the virus. The different measures of the policy include widespread testing, contact tracing, and strict quarantine and isolation protocols. In view of recent changes in COVID-19 trends and other economic indicators, the Chinese government withdrew significant provisions of the zero-COVID policy in China. The present study investigates the sectoral performance of the Chinese stock market after the withdrawal of the zero-COVID policy. The study considers eighteen sectoral indices of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China as a sample and applies the event study methodology to study the impact of the policy withdrawal on the stock prices performance. The results of the study indicate that sectors such as hotel, consumer staples, the financial sector, real estate, media, and culture have reported significant positive movement after the withdrawal of the zero-COVID policy, while other sectors such as consumer discretionary, energy, healthcare, information technology, manufacturing, mining, technology, telecom, transportation, utilities, wholesale, and retail have shown insignificant reactions. These results also indicate that when the COVID-19 outbreak happened in China, different sectors of the economy reacted negatively except the retail and wholesale sectors, while with the withdrawal of the zero-COVID policy by the Chinese government, the reaction of investors is optimistic as different sectors are reporting either positive reactions in the stock price movement or no reaction. © Prashant Sharma, Surender Kumar, 2023.

How do the sectoral indices react to COVID-19? Evidence from an emerging economy

The study empirically examines the impact of the COVID-19 on different sectoral indices of the National Stock Exchange (India) using the event study method and a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. We provide evidence of positive impacts on the auto, oil and gas, healthcare, and pharma sectors. While the bank, financial services, and private bank sectors are the most adversely impacted sectors, the PSU bank, media, and reality sectors are the least impacted, and the rest are moderately impacted sectors. The overall impact of COVID-19 was negative until the implementation of nationwide lockdowns and the announcement of stimulus packages. The GARCH results exhibit more substantial evidence for the negative impact of the pandemic on the FMCG, IT, metal, oil and gas, and PSU bank sectors. We also find a more favourable impact on FMCG, pharma, and healthcare sectors in India.

Effectiveness and supply effects of high-coverage rent control policies

Concerns about housing affordability are widespread in cities worldwide, prompting discussions about rent control policies. This paper studies the effects of a rent control policy adopted in Catalonia in 2020 that applied to some but not all municipalities. The policy virtually covered all the rental market and forced ads and tenancy agreements to specify the applicable rent cap to ensure enforcement. To identify the causal effect of the rent control regulation on the rental market, we exploit register microdata of tenancy agreements and implement difference-in-differences regressions and event-study designs. Our results indicate that the regulation reduced average rents paid by about 4% to 6%. We do not find evidence of a reduction in the supply of rental units, as measured by the number of signed and ended agreements or the active stock of rental units. We implement several robustness tests to address identification concerns related to Covid-19. Our results suggest that rent control policies can effectively reduce rental prices without necessarily shrinking the rental market.

Asian perspective of capital market performance amid the COVID 19 pandemic

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to investigate the short-term capital markets' reactions to the public announcement first local detection of novel corona virus (COVID 19) cases in 12 major Asian capital markets.Design/methodology/approachUsing the constant mean return model and the market model, an event study methodology has been implied to determine the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of 10 pre and post-event trading days. The statistical significance of the data was assessed using both parametric and nonparametric test statistics.FindingsFirst discovery of local COVID 19 cases had a substantial impact on all 12 Asian markets on the event day, as shown by statistically significant negative average abnormal return (AAR) and cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR). The single factor ANOVA result has also demonstrated that there is no variability among 12 regional markets in terms of short-term market responses. Furthermore, there is little evidence that these major Asian stock market indices differ significantly from the FTSE All-World Index which might suggest possible spillover impact and co-integration among the major Asian capital markets. The study further discovers that market capitalization and liquidity did not have any significant impact on market reaction to announcement.Research limitations/implicationsThe study's contribution might have been compromised by the absence of socio-demographic, technical, financial and other significant policy factors from the analysis.Practical implicationsThese findings will be considerably helpful in tackling this unprecedented epidemic issue for personal and institutional investors, industrial and economic experts, government and policymakers in assessing the market in special circumstances, diversifying risk and developing financial and monetary policy proposals.Originality/valueThis paper is the first to examine the effects of local COVID 19 detection announcement on major Asian capital markets. This study will add to the literature by investigating unusual market returns generated by infectious illness outbreaks and the overall market efficiency and investors' behavioral pattern of major Asian capital markets.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the market value of Japanese gaming companies

In this study, we examine the short-term stock price reactions of Japanese gaming companies to events related to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Using the event study method, we first estimate stock price reactions to the outbreak of the pandemic and the declaration of a state of emergency. We then perform multivariate regressions to investigate the factors affecting market responses. Our results demonstrate that the stock prices of Japanese gaming companies reacted negatively to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the initial negative effects were greater for mobile gaming companies and for companies with small sizes or low Tobin's Q. By contrast, the market has reacted positively to the declaration of the state of emergency, which perhaps drove more people to play games at home.

An Assessment of Unconventional Monetary Policy During COVID-19 Pandemic in India

We employ event study methodology to analyze the impact of unprecedented unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures employed by the Reserve Bank of India to fortify monetary transmission mechanism and to restore financial stability. We find that the UMP announcements result in a decline in bond yields and yield spread as well as increase in market capitalization and sectoral portfolio of stock returns. Evaluating the relative efficacy of UMP measures, we find that targeted long-term repo operation announcements are more effective in easing bond yields than mere long-term repo operations. Our findings provide beneficial inference for day-traders and investors as asset prices increase significantly and durable goods producing stock returns found to be higher than those of non-durable goods. The lessons that can be drawn for the emerging market economy central banks, who do not have enough space to conduct conventional monetary policy and even when they do not face zero lower bound interest rate, they still can employ UMP tools to directly influence banks cost of funds, and long-term bond yields and interest rates, and in turn, portfolio of stock returns and investments to stimulate aggregate demand. JEL Classification: C13, C54, E52, E65

Race for Immunity: the Russian Stock Market during the COVID-19 Pandemic

This paper evaluates the stock market performance in Russia during the COVID-19 pandemic from January 3, 2020, to April 30, 2021. The study shows daily abnormal returns of stocks declined on the day when the first coronavirus case was detected. The government's actions in implementing lockdown restrictions and providing stimulus packages positively influenced the stock market. However, the early lifting of lockdowns sent a negative signal to investors. Despite the skepticism among the population toward the first coronavirus vaccine Sputnik V, the news of its registration, mass vaccination, and Russia's "vaccine diplomacy" contributed to the stock market's growth.

Market Warnings: Learning from the Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Market Constituents

Purpose: The paper investigated the short-term impact of the lockdown announcement due to COVID-19 on various industries in India using firms' stock returns and credit ratings. Design/Methodology: The paper used event study methodology to analyze abnormal returns on stocks and credit rating changes of firms following the lockdown to understand the impact on the debt servicing of firms. Findings: The paper found a heterogeneous impact of lockdown on various industries. Pharmaceuticals, chemicals, FMCGs, and telecom sectors saw positive abnormal returns, while textiles, financial services, construction, services, cement, and automobile sectors were the worst affected. The paper also found that smaller companies were more susceptible to the effects of such lockdowns. Indian subsidiaries of foreign MNCs and Central Government-owned firms fared better than privately-owned domestic firms. The debt servicing ability of firms was unimpacted due to the debt relief package announced to mitigate the impact of the lockdown. Practical Implications: The paper's findings have implications for investors and managers who can make informed decisions in advance to reduce the risk to their investment if such a black swan event is expected. The paper's findings could help policymakers identify sectors that require immediate support due to the disruption from such an event. Originality: The paper is unique in investigating the impact of the lockdown due to COVID-19 on companies across different industries, with different ownership groups and sizes. We have not come across such a detailed study investigating the impact of COVID-19 on various industries in India. © 2023, Associated Management Consultants Pvt. Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The role of supply chain diversification in mitigating the negative effects of supply chain disruptions in COVID-19

Purpose: This study examines the firm-level financial consequences caused by supply chain disruptions during COVID-19 and explores how firms' supply chain diversification strategies, including diversified suppliers, customers and products, moderate the negative effect on firm performance. Design/methodology/approach: Based on data drawn from 222 publicly traded firms in China, the authors use event study methodology to estimate the effects of supply chain disruptions on the financial performance of affected firms. Regression analyses are conducted to examine the moderating effects of supply chain diversification. Findings: Firms affected by supply chain disruptions during COVID-19 experienced a significant decline in shareholder value in two weeks and a subsequent decrease in operating performance in one year. Diversified suppliers, customers and products act as shock absorbers to alleviate the negative effects. Further regression shows a substitution effect between customer and product diversification. Cross-industry comparisons reveal that service firms experienced more loss than manufacturing firms. Customer diversification mitigates the adverse effects of supply chain disruptions for both manufacturing and service firms. Supplier diversification exerts a noteworthy role in manufacturing firms, while product diversification is beneficial for service firms. Originality/value: The study provides empirical evidence on the magnitude of financial consequences of supply chain disruptions during COVID-19 in both the short term and long term and enriches the current understanding of how to build resilience from the supply chain diversification perspective. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Monetary policy as market stabilizer in the COVID-19 pandemic.

We categorize expansionary monetary policies based on interest rates, monetary easing, and liquidity decisions. We find that the stock market reacts positively to liquidity policy announcements by a more significant margin during and after the COVID-19 at market and industry levels compared with reactions to interest rate or monetary easing policy announcements. The economic consequences are large and persistent. Using firm characteristics as proxies for monetary policy transmission channels, we find that at firm level, the positive responses to liquidity policy announcements during the crisis are more pronounced for small and medium-sized businesses and non-state-owned enterprises relative to other enterprises.

Do dividend announcements override the pandemic impacts? Evidence from the BSE 500 constituent firms

With a sample of 332 dividend announcements from January 2019 to December 2020, using the event study methodology with the market model, we provide evidence that the dividend announcements failed to influence the stock prices under the pandemic stress. Although the pre-pandemic period announcements significantly impacted the stock returns, the pandemic period dividend announcements failed to generate significant abnormal returns even for an increase in dividend over the previous year. The pre-pandemic period results are consistent with previous literature with significant returns for constant, increase, and decrease in dividends. During the pre-pandemic period, we also find the possibility of information leakage in the Indian stock market as the pre-announcement period is marked with positive significant abnormal returns while the post-announcement period seems to be profit booking. The industry-wise analysis reveals the presence of positive returns in the Information Technology, Media and Telecommunication sector. However, the rest of the results are in line with the previous analysis. The findings suggest that before making such announcements, the companies should wait for the market to recover;else, the positively impacting dividend announcement will fail to influence the stock prices when the market is already under pandemic stress. We conduct the first-ever study to examine the impacts of dividend announcements during a pandemic stress period with also comparing the impacts during the pre-pandemic period. (c) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of College of Management, National Cheng Kung University.

The impact of governmental COVID‐19 measures on manufacturers' stock market valuations: The role of labor intensity and operational slack

This study investigates the impact of the Chinese government's Level I emergency response policy on manufacturers' stock market values. We empirically examine the roles of human resource dependence (labor intensity) and operational slack within the context of supply chain resilience. Through an event study of 1357 Chinese manufacturing companies, we find that the government's emergency response policy triggered statistically significant positive abnormal returns for manufacturers. However, we also find that there exists a negative impact on abnormal returns for manufacturers that are labor‐intensive, giving rise to arguments based in resource dependence theory. In addition, the results indicate the positive role played by operational slack (e.g., financial and inventory slack) in helping manufacturers maintain operations and business continuity, effectively mitigating risks and adding to the manufacturers' resilience. With these findings, we contribute to operations and supply chain management by calling attention to the importance of human resource redundancy while at the same time identifying financial slack and inventory as supply chain resilience strategies that were able to mitigate pandemic‐related risks.

Stock price reactions to corporate cash holdings in mitigating predictable and unpredictable negative shocks

This paper explores how cash mitigates predictable and unpredictable adverse cash flow shocks to firms using the financial data of Japanese firms. We find that (i) cash had a positive impact on stock prices, and the impact was thoroughly reflected in stock prices before a predictable shock, (ii) after an unpredicted shock, the value of cash for the financially constrained firms is larger than that for the unconstrained firms, and (iii) the value of cash is similar between the two shocks for the unconstrained firms whereas the value is larger when the unpredicted shock occurs than when the predicted shock occurs for the constrained firms. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.

Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19: A Cross-Sectional Industry Analysis in Frontier Market

The effect of COVID-19 on the efficiency of frontier stock markets at the industrial level has received little attention. This study aimed to analyze the Dhaka stock exchange's immediate market response to the initial COVID-19 announcement at the industry level. An event study approach was used to cross-sectional daily returns of 311 enterprises grouped into seventeen industry groups to determine anomalous returns for a total of 21 trading days divided into seven separate event periods. According to the findings, the average abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal return for the total market return for the event and the subsequent days were both negative and statistically significant. A cross- sectional industrial analysis found that, except for the paper and printing industries, all other sectors produced a considerably abnormal and uniform negative abnormal return. The most substantial negative cumulative average abnormal returns were seen in event windows (0, 0), (0, +1) and (0, +5), which might be attributed to post-announcement drift and inefficient market activity. Furthermore, when comparing the results of the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing sectors, the Manufacturing sector had more gloomy outcomes. The COVID-19 epidemic was proven to have negative effects on several industry groups, including those in the pharmaceutical, information technology and telecommunications sectors, which were expected to benefit from the outbreak. This is one of the few empirical studies that investigate the impact of the epidemic on the cross-sectional industry stock return in frontier markets. The results of this research will aid both international and domestic investors in their pursuit of the best possible portfolio composition. © 2023 Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.

How did advanced emerging stock markets respond to COVID-19 and the Ukraine invasion?

Orientation: The global economy and stock markets have been severely affected by two recent events, namely, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Research purpose: This study aims to establish whether these two events had the same impact on the stock markets of the group of 11 advanced emerging markets and whether individual countries were affected to the same extent by these two events. Motivation for the study: During periods of instability and uncertainty, emerging markets are usually more vulnerable compared to developed markets. Previous studies have confirmed the presence of herd behaviour relating to emerging markets. Research approach/design and method: This empirical study used an event study approach to compare the stock market performance for the 30 days before the events with the 30 days after the events. The performance of the countries is further analysed and ranked to determine whether countries were affected similarly by the two events. Main findings: The COVID-19 pandemic had a much more severe initial impact on the stock markets of the advanced emerging markets compared to the invasion of Ukraine. Regional and country-specific factors were more relevant for the Ukraine invasion, with Eastern European countries more severely affected. There is no indication of herd behaviour by investors. Practical/managerial implications: Investors seemingly did consider country-specific factors and did not treat stock markets in this group in the same way. There is therefore scope for emerging market countries to benefit from sound fundamentals. Contribution/value-add: The specific focus on emerging markets as a homogeneous group is a novel contribution.

Risk spillover effect of global financial markets in the context of novel coronavirus epidemic

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, the financial markets of many countries have been impacted severely. In this context, based on the event study method and orthogonal decomposition method, this paper studies the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the spillover effect of global financial risk, and further analyses the financial risk transmission channels of various countries. The results suggest that the novel coronavirus significantly increases the overall risk level of global financial markets, and exacerbates the contagion effects of financial risk through the global risk spillover network. In addition, the analysis of transmission channels reveals the source and direction of the financial risks in each country, manifesting as the unidirectional risk transmissions from developed countries to developing countries and the bidirectional risk contagion paths of countries with similar level of development. Therefore, facing the challenges of public health emergencies such as novel coronavirus epidemic, the major economies should strengthen multilateral cooperation and promote the coordination of macroeconomic policies to jointly defuse global systemic financial risk. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

The effect of the COVID-19 announcement on stock returns: evidence from Egypt

Purpose: This study aims at testing efficiency of the Egyptian stock market at semi-strong level through exploring the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Egyptian stock returns. Design/methodology/approach: The author applied the "Event Study” method that addresses the impact of a particular event or group of events on stock returns, from 12 September 2019 to 5 April 2020, choosing Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX) 100 companies which constitute constitutes the highest-level 100 companies in terms of liquidity and activity. Findings: The study found inefficiency of the Egyptian stock market at the semistrong level, as the declaration of the COVID-19 has a negative insignificant effect on stock returns, whether on the day of the declaration, before or after it, The underlying reasons for these results can be referred to the idea that can be explained that investors are noise trading when making their investment decisions. Research limitations/implications: There are two limitations to the interface of this paper. The first one is the short-term impact of COVID-19, using 141 days, and then it is not clear in the research the long-term impact of events related to the epidemic. Secondly, because the author deals with a short period term, the author does not test the characteristics of the company or any other major events that may affect the stock returns of the companies under study. Originality/value: This adds to the finance literature on the impact of the COVID-19 announcement on stock returns in the context of African countries. The explanation of the interconnection of the COVID-19 announcement on stock returns in Egypt. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.

COVID-19 Pandemic and Stock Performance: Evidence from the Sub-Saharan African Stock Markets

Emerging stock markets provide great opportunities for investment growth and risk diversification. However, they are more vulnerable to extreme market events. This study examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock performance in sub-Saharan African stock markets. An event study method was used to determine whether there was any significant difference in sector returns before and during the pandemic, and panel data regression was used to determine the causal relationship between COVID-19 events and the abnormal returns observed. Four stock exchanges were chosen, including the two largest and two fastest-growing markets in sub-Saharan Africa. According to the study's findings, the information technology, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors outperformed during the pandemic, while the industrials, materials, and real estate sectors underperformed. The financial and consumer discretionary proved to be the most stable sectors during the pandemic. We also observed that the imposition of lockdown had a negative impact on the performance of most sectors in sub-Saharan African markets, whereas government assistance in the form of economic stimulus packages had no significant positive impact on stock performance except in the South African market. Furthermore, we find that increases in COVID-19 cases and deaths had no negative impact on capital markets, where stocks have responded positively to economic recovery aid. The study concludes that during the COVID-19 pandemic, stocks reacted more to government actions than the occurrence of the pandemic itself. © 2023 by the authors.

The Intersectoral Systemic Risk Shock of Emergency Crisis Events in China's Financial Market: Nonparametric Methods and Panel Event Study Analyses

By employing two systemic risk methods, the marginal expected shortfall (MES) and the component expected shortfall (CES), this paper measures the systemic risk level of all sectors in China's financial market from 2014 to 2022;thereby, it researches the total effect of sectoral systemic risk using a panel event study model during the three main emergency crisis events. Moreover, two nonparametric methods are utilized, the Wilcoxon signed rank sum test and the bootstrap Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, in order to investigate the changes in individual effects and the dominant ranks of sectoral systemic risk. The empirical results show that (1) the mean values and volatilities of CES and MES of all sectors have a higher level of magnitude in the extreme risk status than those in the normal risk status;(2) by comparing the total effects of three crisis events, we find that different from the continuous shock effect caused by two other events, sectoral systemic risk has a hysteresis effect on the entire market after the outbreak of COVID-19;(3) the long-term and short-term individual effects of sectoral systemic risk in all sectors are different from each other during three events;and (4) the dominance tests of MES are more sensitive and thus better demonstrate the changes in the rankings of sectoral systemic risk than the dominant tests of CES during the emergency crisis events. © 2023 by the authors.